California — the deep-blue, far-left laboratory where bad ideas go to multiply — might actually be on the verge of doing the unthinkable: electing a Republican governor for the first time in two decades. And all because of its own “top-two” primary system, a system Democrats once sold as a path to moderation but that somehow delivered the exact opposite. Shocking, I know.
For over ten years, every candidate in California runs in the same primary, and only the top two — regardless of party — advance to the general election. And now, because Democrats can’t seem to pick a leader to save their lives, the 2026 governor’s race is shaping up to be a perfect storm for Republicans Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton.
According to a new Emerson College poll, Bianco leads the entire field with 13%, while Hilton ties scandal-magnet Democrat Eric Swalwell at 12%. Katie Porter, once considered the “frontrunner” before her reputation… well, Portered, sits at 11%. Antonio Villaraigosa trails at 5%, and both climate billionaire Tom Steyer and Biden-era HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra sit at 4%.
But here’s the real headline: 31% of voters are still undecided. That’s a lot of Californians waiting for someone — anyone — who isn’t promising higher taxes, more regulation, or another round of “California is a utopia” speeches while stepping over encampments to deliver them.
Bianco calls the situation a “perfect storm,” noting that with more than a dozen Democrats splitting their own vote, it’s completely possible for two Republicans to make it to November. Hilton, more cautious, says Democrats would never let themselves get shut out of the biggest state in America — because if there’s one thing Democrats do well, it’s closing ranks when power is threatened.
Still, Bianco’s math stands: chaos on the Democratic side is real. And according to him, there’s a reason for that — the party “has no leadership.” He even points to Newsom, calling him possibly “the biggest narcissist in the world,” which honestly may be the most bipartisan statement California has seen in years.
The list of Democrats running gets longer every week: Porter, Swalwell, Steyer, Becerra, Betty Yee, Tony Thurmond, Ian Calderon — plus rumors of Rob Bonta and billionaire Rick Caruso jumping in. Kamala Harris, for what it’s worth, already bowed out of this one. Probably wise.
A separate UC Berkeley IGS poll also showed Republicans within striking distance, again with no Democrat leading the pack. Translation: Democrats are in disarray, and voters know it.
Hilton argues California has become “the Wuhan lab of far-left extremism,” with the state ranking 50th — dead last — on affordability, opportunity, unemployment, and poverty. Hard to argue with him when families are fleeing faster than taxes can chase them to Nevada.
Both Bianco and Hilton say they’d scrap the top-two system altogether if elected, calling it “disastrous.” But as Hilton points out, first you have to win within the broken system California already has.
And if a Republican does win? Hilton calls it what it would be: a “shocking rebuke” of 16 years of one-party rule — rule that has delivered failure after failure while Democrats somehow keep insisting everything is fine.
Other states like Washington, Louisiana, and Nebraska use their own versions of top-two, but nowhere has it produced the kind of political distortions California has seen — including all-Democrat Senate finals in 2016 and 2018, and even a GOP district where six Republicans split the vote so badly that two Democrats advanced instead… only for one of them to later switch parties and become a Republican.
Imagine that — even Democrats elected under their own rules eventually decide the GOP is the better choice.
