It’s been over a decade since Senator Ted Cruz sounded the alarm on Obamacare, warning that the subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) would eventually spiral out of control. Well, guess what? Cruz's prophecy has proven all too accurate, and now these ballooning premiums and subsidies are at the heart of Washington's latest showdown.

Back in 2013, Cruz predicted that despite the subsidies, many Americans would still face higher premiums under Obamacare. He was right then, and it turns out he was also right about the long-term consequences. Cruz cited research by Avik Roy, a healthcare researcher, who argued that while the Obama administration’s subsidies were meant to help, they wouldn’t keep healthcare plans from getting more expensive. And surprise, surprise, they haven’t.

Fast forward to today, and the costs of government-backed healthcare plans have only grown worse. But now, the added burden of the COVID-19 pandemic has taken the government’s emergency response to another level, expanding subsidies in ways Cruz and Roy never predicted. The emergency provisions under President Joe Biden’s 2021 American Rescue Plan temporarily broadened eligibility for subsidies in response to the pandemic, but those provisions are set to expire at the end of 2025—thanks to the Democrats themselves.

Now, with these COVID-era subsidies set to end, Democrats are raising alarms about how Obamacare policyholders will cope with skyrocketing health insurance costs without that extra financial help. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, continuing the expanded subsidies could cost taxpayers a staggering $30 billion annually. And research from KFF, a healthcare policy group, shows that more than 90% of the 24 million people enrolled in Obamacare depend on these enhanced credits to make their premiums affordable. In fact, last year, the enhanced subsidies saved enrollees an average of $705 each.

In the middle of this mess, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are pushing for an extension of the enhanced subsidies as part of the negotiations to end the current government shutdown—now the longest in history. Meanwhile, Republicans are adamant that subsidies have nothing to do with government funding and should only be addressed once the government is back up and running.

And for the most conservative members of Congress, cutting back on these subsidies is a non-negotiable part of bringing the government’s spending back to pre-COVID levels.

So, here we are—Ted Cruz’s warnings about Obamacare subsidies are not just some far-off political prediction, they’re the battle lines of today’s funding fight. It's a mess, no doubt, but one thing’s for sure: this wasn’t an accident. Ted Cruz saw this coming a decade ago. Let’s hope we can find a way to clean up the mess before it costs us even more.