In a crowded field of 12 candidates, Republican Steve Hilton is leading both Democrats and Republicans in the race for California governor — and yes, that sound you hear is the political establishment choking on its avocado toast. Even better, Hilton has real momentum.
According to pollster Emerson, “The Republican electorate in California is split between Hilton at 38 percent and Chad Bianco at 37 percent, while Hilton also picks up a plurality of independent voters at 22 percent.” Meanwhile, Democratic voters “have not yet clearly coalesced around one candidate.” Translation: Republicans are organizing, Democrats are… still having meetings about meetings.
Since the previous poll, Hilton has gained five points, matched only by billionaire Tom Steyer, who sits at 8.8 percent support. Even “Undecided” is leading with 21.2 percent — which is impressive, considering “Undecided” doesn’t actually campaign or buy ads.
Among voters who have made up their minds, Hilton leads with 17.1 percent. Rep. Eric Swalwell trails in second at 14.1 percent, followed by Bianco at 13.5 percent. Former Rep. Katie Porter comes in at 9.8 percent. The bench isn’t exactly deep on the Democrat side, unless you count cable news appearances as governing experience.
The primary is set for June 2. The top vote-getter will move on to face the winner in November to replace outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom. Party labels won’t matter in the general election — Californians could end up choosing between two Democrats or two Republicans. Democracy, but with extra chaos.
There’s more good news for the GOP. Newsom’s approval rating stands at 44 percent, with 45 percent disapproving. Even worse for Democrats, 53 percent of those polled are considering leaving the state due to the high cost of living — apparently sunshine doesn’t pay rent.
On immigration, voters are nearly split: 41 percent favor former President Joe Biden’s approach, while 38 percent favor Donald Trump’s approach. Another 21 percent don’t like either — which sounds like California in a nutshell.
For years, corporate media has insisted Texas is always about to turn blue. Yet when voters show up, Texas stays Republican. Funny how that works.
Two factors could help the GOP take the governor’s mansion in one of the bluest states in the country. First, the leading Democrats in this poll — Swalwell and Porter — are weak candidates, and even in California, the candidate still matters. Democrats would be wiser to rally around Steyer, but wisdom hasn’t exactly been their brand lately.
Second, under Democrat rule, California has become a failed state. The real question is whether enough Democrat voters are demoralized to stay home and let the GOP win.
One thing to remember: all three Republican candidates total about 30 percent support, while Democrat candidates collectively reach around 45 percent. But with dissatisfaction rising and momentum building, the opportunity is real.
And that’s the good news — because even in deep-blue California, voters are starting to notice reality, and reality tends to vote red when things get bad enough.
