By Emily Jacobs, Congressional Reporter. Media: Washingtonexaminer.com
Pennsylvania Republicans and Democrats are gearing up for what is expected to be a bruising and costly battle for Sen. Bob Casey’s (D-PA) seat next year.
The contest for Casey’s seat is expected to be one of the most competitive and expensive of the 2024 cycle, especially given that the race is critical to both sides’ paths to the Senate majority. Pollsters say Casey, the son of former Pennsylvania Gov. Bob Casey Sr. and the longest-serving Democratic senator in Pennsylvania history, is the slight favorite, with his candidacy being boosted by the power of incumbency and strong name recognition.
Despite those strengths, Republicans argue Casey has vulnerabilities and has never had to run in an off-year for his party. The Pennsylvania senator has long cast himself as a centrist Democrat, though state Republicans say he has shifted left in recent years, as evidenced by his support for most of President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda.
As part of their efforts to block him from a fourth term, Republicans are on the verge of recruiting former Bridgewater executive David McCormick into the race.
McCormick, who lost the 2022 GOP Senate primary for the vacant seat eventually won by Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), has been hiring staff and fundraising through a super PAC in preparation for a 2024 campaign launch sometime this fall, three sources familiar with his plans tell the Washington Examiner.
“Dave is thinking very seriously about running,” one source said. “Bob Casey is vulnerable — he’s never been given a real fight — and Pennsylvania Democrats know that McCormick would give Casey a serious run for his money.”
While there is broad recognition that Casey is still formidable, Republicans believe McCormick, a West Point graduate who served in the Bush administration, is the best candidate to take him on. Whether McCormick can land the plane in the general election remains to be seen, but the Republican’s leading state allies acknowledge victory is no guarantee.
“It is absolutely going to be a tough fight, there’s no doubt about that,” said Sam DeMarco, who chairs the Allegheny County Republican Party. “Beating Bob Casey here in a normal year is 50-50 at best. Now, Casey, many people view as this behemoth on the Democrat side, but look at his elections.”
DeMarco pointed to Casey’s 2006, 2012, and 2018 races, all of which were better cycles for Democrats. “These were just all bad years for Republicans. I don’t anticipate next year being a bad year for Republicans,” he explained.
Dr. Chris Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pennsylvania, who runs the school’s polling institute, noted that Casey first established his formidable standing when he “won by double digits” against incumbent Sen. Rick Santorum in 2006.
“It was just a blowout of an incumbent. You don’t see those numbers,” Borick said.
DeMarco, meanwhile, credited Casey’s 2006 victory to the timing of the contest, explaining, “That was during the Iraq War, and that was a Democrat wave.”
As for McCormick’s chances in his 2024 bid, Borick described the race as Casey’s to lose.
“It is an uphill climb. It’s not insurmountable. We see incumbents lose. Sometimes they lose because of situations and other things that start to wear and tear on them. That’s not Bob Casey, he hasn’t had a whiff of scandal,” Borick said. “So it would have to be some kind of broader atmospheric aspect that really starts rolling the presidential election one way and opens up doors for Republicans again.”
“McCormick’s a capable and likely well-funded candidate, but that all being said, it’s still a challenging place,” he added.
McCormick is already facing scrutiny despite not being in the race yet. He’s faced questions in recent months about his ties to China and whether his primary residence is in Pennsylvania or Connecticut.
“The real McCormick is a mega-millionaire hedge fund executive who has been lying about living in Pennsylvania, and spent his career outsourcing jobs and managing billions for the Chinese government in order to enrich himself and his Wall Street friends,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokeswoman Maeve Coyle said in a statement on a possible McCormick candidacy. “Pennsylvanians won’t be fooled by another out-of-state carpetbagger who only looks out for himself.”
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