Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett is no longer just leading the Texas Democratic U.S. Senate primary — she is pulling away, and she is doing so as early voting is already underway.
A new statewide survey conducted from Feb. 2 through Feb. 16 among likely Democratic primary voters shows the Dallas congresswoman widening her advantage over state Rep. James Talarico. Early voting began Feb. 17 and runs through Feb. 27 ahead of the March primary, meaning this shift is occurring while ballots are already being cast.
The poll finds Crockett ahead 56% to 44% among likely Democratic primary voters statewide — a 12-point margin.
That is not statistical noise. It is movement.
Late-January polling had Crockett leading by 8 points after a period when the race appeared tighter. Since then, the trajectory has moved in only one direction. The broader polling average reflects the same trend, suggesting the lead is not the result of a single outlier survey but part of a larger pattern.
Inside Democratic circles, expectations are also shifting. A longtime party strategist wrote this week that sources connected to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee believe Crockett is “likely winning,” adding that an attack line against her opponent “worked.” Whether confidence or calculated spin, the language reflects a campaign environment that no longer expects a tightening race.
The contrast with the Republican primary is stark. On the GOP side, the contest between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn remains unsettled, with recent polls showing narrow margins and fluctuating leads. No clear consolidation has emerged among Republican voters.
Among Democrats, the picture is increasingly different.
Primaries typically narrow as voting begins. They do not usually widen. A shift from a single-digit edge to a 12-point lead during early voting suggests Democratic voters are coalescing rather than hesitating.
Crockett has built her profile through sharp exchanges, viral moments, and pointed soundbites that frequently reach beyond Texas politics. Over the past year, she has leaned into confrontational messaging and national media exposure. That strategy does not appear to have hurt her in this race. If anything, it may be helping consolidate support among Democratic primary voters.
While Republicans continue to battle for position, Democrats appear increasingly settled on their direction.
Polls remain snapshots in time. But widening margins during early voting are not random. They point to consolidation — and consolidation at this stage of the race is rarely accidental.
