POINT PLEASANT, N.J. — With six days to go and nearly 1 million ballots already cast, New Jersey GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli says the early vote is right where he wants it. On “Hannity,” he noted Republicans are returning vote-by-mail ballots at record levels and, in early in-person voting, the GOP has been matching Democrats “voter for voter.” Translation: if the campaign hits Election Day within a certain margin, he believes they win. Imagine that—Republicans competing hard in a space Democrats used to treat like their private sandbox.
The matchup with Democratic nominee Rep. Mikie Sherrill has tightened to a single-digit race, and both sides are bragging about turnout. Sherrill calls her numbers “really great news.” Ciattarelli calls the GOP return rate “phenomenal.” Sure, both can be happy—but only one needs the late break. Ciattarelli is betting that’s coming when it counts.
Trump’s endorsement earlier this year cemented the GOP primary for Ciattarelli and energized the general. Since then, MAGA heavyweights have hit the trail: Vivek Ramaswamy, Rep. Byron Donalds—and President Donald Trump himself, who headlined a tele-rally just before early voting began, with another expected before Election Day. Funny how the same folks the media swears “don’t move votes” keep… moving votes.
The strategy is surgical: target low-propensity Republicans—the ones who vote in presidential years and sit out the rest—and get them to vote by mail or vote early. That’s called organization, not luck. (Although some people do love calling GOP ground game “luck” whenever it works.)
Yes, New Jersey leans blue in federal and legislative races. But governor’s races here are different: Republicans have won five of the last ten. Since Ciattarelli’s near-miss four years ago, the GOP has narrowed the registration gap, and Trump cut his statewide deficit in last year’s presidential race to six points from sixteen. Ciattarelli points out that shift means roughly 300,000 more voters today are favorable to the president than in 2021. Momentum isn’t a slogan; it’s math.
And he’s thinking beyond the top of the ticket. Ciattarelli is projecting down-ballot gains in the legislature, which Democrats have controlled for nearly a quarter-century. In 2021, with “the wind at my face,” Republicans flipped eight seats; this time, with “the wind at my back,” he says thirteen flips are on the table. Ambitious? Sure. Impossible? Not with the right wind—and voters.
Bottom line: it’s a knife-edge contest, with new polls showing Sherrill ahead by single digits. But early-vote energy, a disciplined ground game, and a fully engaged Trump coalition have Ciattarelli “in a really good position to win.” Keep pressing, keep banking votes, and finish strong—that’s how you turn “close” into “Governor.”
