When President Donald Trump weighs in on a Republican primary, the political landscape tends to change almost overnight. South Carolina's special Senate race is proving, once again, that a Trump endorsement remains one of the most powerful forces in American politics.
According to the prediction market Kalshi, Sen. Darline Graham's chances of winning the Republican special primary surged from just 14% to 80% in the four days following President Trump's endorsement. The dramatic shift has transformed her from a long shot into the overwhelming favorite ahead of the August 11 primary to fill the Senate seat left vacant by the death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham.
Even CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten, acknowledged the extraordinary impact of Trump's backing.
"Darline Graham's chances have rocketed up because rarely has the power of one man and his endorsements in primaries been as strong with Donald Trump," Enten said Tuesday.
Enten pointed to Kalshi's numbers, noting that Graham stood at just 14% on July 17 before skyrocketing to 80% only four days later. The most significant development during that stretch was President Trump's endorsement, which came before Graham had even announced she intended to seek a full term.
"Now, that's not 100%," Enten said. "But it's way, way higher than 14%. She's the clear favorite to fill that seat, or at least win the primary."
The South Carolina race is hardly an isolated example. Enten observed that Trump's influence has become remarkably consistent in Republican Senate contests across the country.
"When it comes to Senate primaries, Donald Trump's record is magnificent," he said. "Since 2022, it's about 95% of the time. This year, in fewer races, it's 100% of the time. No wonder why the prediction markets and the conventional wisdom have moved so rapidly once Trump made that endorsement!"
For years, political analysts have searched for signs that Trump's influence inside the Republican Party might fade. Instead, election after election has produced the opposite result. Candidates who secure his endorsement frequently see fundraising improve, grassroots enthusiasm accelerate, and polling numbers climb almost immediately.
South Carolina now appears to be following that familiar pattern. With Republicans expected to hold the seat in November, the August 11 primary has become the race that matters most—and President Trump's endorsement has fundamentally reshaped it.
The message is becoming increasingly difficult for even Trump's critics to ignore. In the Republican Party, the America First movement continues to define the direction of the party, and President Trump's endorsement remains the closest thing to a political seal of approval in modern GOP politics.
