Drug overdose deaths in the United States have dropped sharply as President Donald Trump’s administration moves aggressively to secure the southern border, according to newly released federal data.
U.S. overdose deaths fell by 20.6 percent over a one-year period, based on the latest provisional figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Several states saw even more dramatic improvements, with Louisiana, Florida, Virginia, New York, Vermont, Wyoming, and Washington, D.C. reporting declines of more than 30 percent.
The data covers deaths from August 2024 to August 2025. While the decline began late in Joe Biden’s term—after his administration quietly tightened border enforcement amid mounting criticism—the pace of improvement accelerated after President Trump took office and implemented a tougher, no-nonsense approach to border security.
“The fall begins at the end of the Biden administration, but the question is, was it in anticipation of a tough-on-crime president coming in?” said Joseph Giacalone, a retired NYPD sergeant and adjunct criminal justice professor at Penn State Lehigh Valley.
“Securing the borders has a lot to do with the drop,” Giacalone added. “Less chance for drug dealers and their mules to bring drugs into the country.”
The CDC emphasized that the figures are still provisional, as some causes of death remain under investigation. Still, the trend is unmistakable.
While factors such as expanded access to overdose-reversal drugs like Narcan may have played a role, Giacalone said the most significant driver is clear. “Nothing has made a bigger impact than shutting down the floodgates at the border,” he said.
He also pointed to the Trump administration’s aggressive actions against drug smugglers, including targeting trafficking operations at sea. “The jury is still out on the effect of blowing up drug boats, but I can imagine it working as a deterrent as well,” Giacalone noted. “Deterrence matters in criminal justice policy.”
Although the CDC did not attribute the decline to any single policy, many Americans see the numbers as validation of President Trump’s tough-on-crime agenda and renewed focus on border enforcement.
That view has been echoed in popular media as well. Earlier this month, podcaster Joe Rogan remarked that overdose deaths have “dropped off a cliff” during Trump’s time in office, pointing to recent efforts to disrupt drug-smuggling operations.
“For the time Trump’s been in office, deaths by overdose have dropped off a cliff,” Rogan said during an episode of The Joe Rogan Experience with Olympic gold medalist and wrestler Gable Steveson.
Rogan referenced a chart showing annual overdose deaths, noting that the peak occurred between 2023 and 2024. “Then from the time Trump’s in office, it’s taken a sharp downturn,” he said. “Look at 2024 and leading into 2025—these are all deaths from overdoses. That’s kind of crazy. Look at that drop.”
For many, the message is simple: enforcing the law, securing the border, and taking crime seriously saves lives. And the numbers are starting to back that up.
