For years, Americans were told that violent crime was simply the new normal. That message is becoming harder to sell.
A new report from the independent Council on Criminal Justice shows the United States is on pace to record one of the lowest homicide rates in modern history if current trends hold through the end of 2026. The findings point to a dramatic improvement in public safety, with murders falling well below pre-pandemic expectations in many parts of the country.
According to data collected from 30 American cities, homicides have dropped 18% compared with the same period in 2025—equaling roughly 215 fewer killings so far this year. If that trajectory continues, the nation's annual homicide rate could reach its lowest level in more than a century.
The report, released Thursday, tracked 13 major crime categories. Nine of them moved in the right direction, including aggravated assault, residential burglary, and carjackings. Residential burglaries fell 13% from last year and have plunged roughly 50% compared with 2019, before the COVID-era crime wave reshaped much of the country.
Another encouraging trend is that violent crimes are becoming less deadly. Researchers found a 23% decline in the lethality of serious violent offenses, meaning a smaller share of those crimes resulted in death.
"This is one of the most significant public safety developments in decades," Council on Criminal Justice President and CEO Adam Gelb said. "It means lives are being saved, families are spared trauma and communities are regaining stability."
The improvement is broad enough that it crosses political boundaries.
"Murder and other crime rates are falling across the map in cities with different political leadership, different housing and economic conditions, different policing and prosecution and violence reduction strategies and different levels of federal enforcement activity," Gelb noted.
That reality makes it difficult to credit any single policy or politician for the nationwide decline. Still, the report arrives as President Donald Trump has made restoring law and order, strengthening immigration enforcement, and supporting police central themes of his second administration. Conservative leaders argue that tougher enforcement sends a clear message that crime will no longer be tolerated, while others point to a combination of long-term policing strategies, federal funding, and changing social conditions.
Not every city is sharing in the progress.
Roughly one-third of the cities included in the study experienced increases in homicides during the first half of 2026 compared with the same period last year. Norfolk, Virginia, recorded a staggering 64% increase, while San Francisco saw murders rise by 55%. Looking back to 2019, only four cities—Norfolk, Austin, Pittsburgh, and Minneapolis—have more homicides today than they did before the pandemic.
Other crime categories also offered a mixed picture. Shoplifting increased 5%, while domestic violence incidents, sexual assaults, and drug offenses posted modest gains. Even so, drug offenses remain below pre-pandemic levels.
John Roman, director of the Center on Public Safety and Justice at the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center, said politicians from both parties will inevitably try to claim credit. Republicans are likely to point to tougher immigration enforcement and National Guard deployments in some cities, while Democrats may cite public safety legislation enacted during the Biden administration.
Roman argued the explanation is probably more complex, pointing to factors such as lower drug use, reduced activity in illegal drug markets, and community programs funded after the pandemic that focused on young people most at risk of violence.
Whatever combination of factors is driving the decline, the results are difficult to ignore. Americans have spent years watching crime dominate headlines and communities struggle with rising violence. A sustained drop in murders is welcome news regardless of politics—but it also serves as a reminder that public safety requires serious leadership, consistent enforcement, and accountability. When government makes protecting law-abiding citizens a priority, communities are far more likely to thrive.
