President Trump all but telegraphed the news Wednesday night, hinting that the inflation report set for release the following morning would confirm what the media has been reluctant to acknowledge.

“Tonight, after 11 months, our border is secure, inflation has stopped, wages are up, prices are down, our nation is strong, America is respected, and our country is back, stronger than ever before,” Trump declared in his prime-time address.

At the time, the usual media fact-checkers rushed in to scoff. Economists had broadly predicted inflation would rise again in November. Forecasts for year-over-year CPI ranged from 2.9% to 3.2%, with consensus media expectations hovering around 3.1%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, was expected to land between 3.0% and 3.1%.

Commentators were quick to accuse Trump of spinning the numbers — and even quicker to blame tariffs for supposedly pushing prices higher. Never mind that tariff-affected categories like durable goods were rising modestly, while services inflation remained the dominant driver.

What many reporters conveniently ignored is that presidents receive key economic data in advance. Trump wasn’t guessing. He knew what was coming.

By Thursday morning, the embarrassment was complete.

The Department of Labor reported that CPI rose just 2.7% year-over-year in November. Core CPI came in at 2.6%, the slowest pace since March 2021 — effectively ending the era of Biden-era inflation spikes.

Because Democrats shut down the government in October, no CPI report was issued that month, and November’s release covered a two-month span from September to November. Even so, the numbers were strikingly strong. Overall CPI rose just 0.2% over the two months, implying monthly inflation of roughly 0.1%. Core CPI showed the same minimal increase.

Annualized figures paint an even clearer picture:

• Three-month CPI annualized: 2.1%

• Six-month CPI annualized: 2.8%

• Core CPI three-month annualized: 1.6%

• Core CPI six-month annualized: 2.6%

• Inflation during Trump’s presidency (since February): 2.2% annualized

In other words, inflation is now hovering right around the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Excess inflation has, for all practical purposes, stopped.

Grocery prices — the most politically sensitive category — are up just 1.9% year-over-year, the lowest rate since February. This directly undercuts claims that everyday costs continue spiraling out of control.

The report also deals another blow to the tariff-inflation narrative. Core goods prices rose just 1.4% over the year. Apparel prices increased a negligible 0.2%. New vehicles rose 0.6%, durable goods 1.5%, appliances 0.5%, and major appliances 1.2%. Furniture prices did rise about 3%, but isolated increases like that are offset elsewhere.

Tariffs, where they matter at all, shift relative prices — they do not drive broad inflation.

Suddenly, however, many economists decided they don’t trust the data.

Those aligned with Democratic politics rushed to argue that the shutdown distorted the CPI, citing imputed data and late-month price collection. Yet these same analysts knew about the data limitations in advance — and still forecast higher inflation. Curiously, skepticism only surfaced after the numbers proved Trump right.

Even looking at categories least affected by shutdown distortions, the story holds. Core goods excluding food, energy, and used cars rose just 1.1% year-over-year. Services excluding shelter increased 3.5%, the slowest pace since May.

Lower inflation also means higher real wages. Over the past year, median weekly earnings rose 3.5%, beating inflation by 0.8%. Blue-collar wages climbed 4.2%, translating into real gains of 1.5%.

Those gains directly address “affordability” — no matter how loudly the media insists Americans should ignore hard data in favor of political vibes.

Once again, the numbers speak for themselves. And once again, they tell a story the president’s critics would rather not hear.