By Annabella Rosciglione. Media: Washingtonexaminer
Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in seven must-win swing states, according to a new Bloomberg poll.
The poll shows Trump beating Biden in seven key states likely to decide the election results. Swing states are characterized by “swinging” between being won by Republican and Democratic candidates depending on the year. Five of the seven swing states were won by Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020.
The numbers
North Carolina has the highest support of the former president, with Trump polling 9 points ahead of Biden. In Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, Trump is polling ahead of Biden by 6 percentage points. Trump is polling 4 percentage points higher than Biden in Wisconsin.
In 2016, Trump won Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Biden was able to swing votes in those states in his favor in 2020. Nevada and North Carolina kept their voting record, voting for Biden and Trump, respectively, but by small margins, making them states the campaigns are keeping an eye on.
In recent elections, swing states have had small margins, and in 2020, seven states were won by a margin of 3 percentage points or less.
The problems
Eighty-two percent of respondents said Biden or both candidates were too old to be president. Comparatively, half of respondents said Trump or both candidates were too old to hold the office.
Before being asked about the president’s age in the poll, more than 1,000 respondents of the nearly 5,000 polled mentioned Biden’s age as a looming problem. Among voters who said they would vote for Biden in November, 7 in 10 said he fit the description of being “too old.”
“Biden’s age is clearly a sticky narrative that the president’s campaign is going to have to contend with,” said Caroline Bye, vice president at Morning Consult. Despite the candidates being four years apart in age, Bye said that “it’s clearly stickier for Biden than it is for Trump.”
Nearly 60% of those polled said Trump or both candidates would be “dangerous” in office, with as many as half of swing-state voters saying they would be unwilling to vote for Trump if he is convicted of any of the criminal charges he faces. Hundreds of people polled, prior to being asked by pollsters about Trump’s criminal cases, brought up the charges.
The border is a key matter in voters’ minds. A majority of those polled believe Biden and congressional Democrats are responsible for the immigrant crisis and surge of entry at the border. Blame for Trump and congressional Republicans for the immigrant crisis increased 5 percentage points from last month’s poll after the failed bipartisan border bill.