Republicans are gaining serious momentum following President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address and may be positioned to do something Washington swears is impossible: defy midterm election history.
According to the Harvard Harris Poll, Republicans are now on equal footing with Democrats in a generic congressional ballot. When likely midterm voters were asked whether they would support a Democrat or a Republican for Congress if the election were held today, the result was an even split — a dramatic eight-point swing toward Republicans since January, when Democrats held a 54–46 advantage. Funny what happens when results start replacing rhetoric.
Historically, the party controlling the White House almost always loses ground in midterm elections. Only twice has that trend been broken. In 1934, Democrats expanded their majorities under Franklin D. Roosevelt during the Great Depression. In 2002, Republicans grew their numbers with George W. Bush after the September 11 attacks. Two rare moments — and now Republicans believe they’re lining up for a third.
White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair said Saturday on SiriusXM’s Breitbart News that Republicans can once again “defy history” and hold their congressional majorities.
Blair explained that Republicans have something Democrats don’t: a record and a contrast. “We can point very clearly to what things were like two years ago,” he said. Voters remember eight percent interest rates on 30-year mortgages, which are now under six percent. They remember five-dollar gas, which is now under $2.50. Real wages are rising again instead of shrinking under Joe Biden, when inflation outpaced earnings by thousands of dollars a year. Turns out people like paying less for food and fuel — who knew?
Meanwhile, Democrats have weakened their case for “responsible governance” by forcing their third government shutdown in just over a year since Trump’s inauguration. The partial shutdown has left the Department of Homeland Security without appropriations, shutting down key security functions and forcing thousands of workers to labor without pay. Not exactly a campaign slogan anyone wants printed on yard signs.
With polling momentum shifting, economic indicators improving, and Democrats tripping over their own shutdown politics, Republicans are showing signs they might rewrite the midterm rulebook. History says it’s unlikely — but results are saying something different. And if voters keep choosing performance over panic, Republicans just might make history again.
