Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger rode into office on a strong blue wave last November—but just a few months in, the numbers are already telling a very different story.
A new poll shows 46% of Virginians disapprove of her job performance, while only 47% approve. That might sound close, but here’s the kicker: compared to every Virginia governor since 1994, Spanberger now holds the highest disapproval rating this early in a term. Not exactly the kind of record most politicians brag about.
For perspective, former Gov. Glenn Youngkin stood at a solid 54-39 approval at the same point in his tenure. And if you go further back, even stronger numbers appear—Mark Warner posted a massive 78-20, Tim Kaine 62-31, and Jim Gilmore 63-30. In other words, Spanberger isn’t just underperforming—she’s setting a new benchmark, and not in a good way.
What makes this even more striking is how decisively she won. Spanberger defeated then-Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears by 15 points and helped flip all statewide offices to Democrats, including Ghazala Hashmi as lieutenant governor and Jay Jones as attorney general. A landslide victory like that usually buys some political goodwill—apparently not this time.
Experts are taking notice. George Mason University’s Mark Rozell described the early numbers as “unusual,” especially considering Spanberger campaigned on a centrist image. Turns out, voters tend to notice when that image starts to shift.
And that brings us to the issue driving much of the backlash: gerrymandering.
Critics have been quick to point out what they see as a sharp reversal from Spanberger’s past stance. Back in 2019, she stated clearly that “gerrymandering is detrimental to our democracy” and should be opposed on a bipartisan basis. Fast forward to today, and opponents are circulating those exact words in mailers—never a great sign when your past statements start coming back to haunt you.
The controversy centers around a redistricting referendum that critics argue unfairly benefits her political base. Under the proposed changes, five new districts would originate in Fairfax and extend outward, potentially diluting the influence of rural central and western parts of the state. Critics say this effectively overpowers those communities—something voters don’t tend to appreciate, no matter how it’s packaged.
At the end of the day, the message from voters seems pretty clear: consistency matters. If you campaign as a centrist and promise fairness, people expect you to stick to it. And when that trust starts to crack, approval ratings tend to follow.
The silver lining? The system is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do—holding leaders accountable. And as history shows, when voters speak this early, smart politicians listen.
