Decision Desk HQ has projected what many Texans were already sensing: Republicans are headed for a runoff in the Texas Senate primary because no candidate cleared the magic 50-percent-plus-one threshold. With more than 65 percent of the vote counted, incumbent John Cornyn is sitting at 43.2 percent, while Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is right behind him at 40.3 percent. Rep. Wesley Hunt trails in third with 12.9 percent.
Translation: strap in, because Cornyn and Paxton are headed for a runoff on May 26.
Cornyn, who has held his Senate seat since 2002, is now fighting the toughest race of his political career. Polls have consistently shown him locked in a dead heat with Paxton, with Hunt always hanging out in third place like a guy who showed up late to the party. A recent University of Texas poll confirmed that reality, showing Paxton and Cornyn neck-and-neck, with neither anywhere close to avoiding a runoff. Paxton led with 36 percent, Cornyn had 34 percent, and Hunt pulled 26 percent.
Earlier in the race, Paxton went after Cornyn with an ad highlighting the senator’s oddly cozy relationship with Democrat Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who’s running in the Democrat Senate primary. That didn’t exactly scream “Texas conservative energy,” and voters noticed.
At the same time, an Emerson College poll from January showed Cornyn with the strongest general election chances against Crockett and her Democrat rival James Talarico. So yes, even the pollsters were basically saying, “Pick your fighter.”
Prediction markets going into Tuesday’s primary were feeling bold about Paxton, giving him roughly an 80 percent chance of beating Cornyn and Hunt. His odds of passing the 50-percent-plus-one mark even climbed near 30 percent before reality set in. Close, but no cigar.
Now Texas Republicans get what they do best: a second round. Two heavyweight conservatives, one seat, and a runoff that’s going to be loud, messy, and very Texas. No matter which way it breaks, the GOP is fired up — and that’s exactly how you keep momentum rolling into November.
