A new analysis from the Cato Institute has documented a dramatic decline in legal immigration from majority-Muslim countries during President Donald Trump's second administration, with monthly immigrant-visa issuances and permanent refugee admissions from 45 majority-Muslim nations falling 96 percent between December 2024 and February 2026.
According to Cato's analysis of State Department data, the number fell from 21,096 in December 2024 to 808 in February 2026. The decline was substantially larger than the 36 percent reduction recorded for other countries during the same period.
The figures have drawn attention because Cato is a libertarian organization that has frequently criticized Trump's immigration policies. The report itself describes the reduction as part of what it considers an especially sweeping restriction on legal immigration under the current administration.
The numbers nevertheless provide a striking measure of how dramatically legal immigration patterns have changed.
Afghanistan experienced one of the largest declines. Cato reports that Afghan legal immigrants and refugees fell from 5,563 in December 2024 to just nine in February 2026—a 99.8 percent reduction. Afghans accounted for approximately 27 percent of the total decline among the 45 majority-Muslim countries. Pakistan recorded a 97.9 percent decline, while Somalia, Yemen, Syria and Uzbekistan each experienced reductions of roughly 99 percent or more.
Only three countries in the group—Qatar, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates—recorded increases during the period. Turkey experienced the smallest decline, at 8 percent.
The reductions were not produced by a single immigration order.
Cato attributes them to several Trump administration policies, including the suspension and restructuring of refugee admissions, an entry restriction covering 40 countries, a State Department immigrant-visa suspension covering 75 countries, the suspension of the diversity visa lottery and an immigrant-visa interview freeze announced in August 2026.
According to the analysis, 34 of the 45 majority-Muslim countries were specifically affected by either the 40-country entry restriction or the 75-country visa suspension.
The refugee component is particularly significant. Cato reports that permanent refugee admissions from the 45 countries fell from 5,157 in December 2024 to zero in February 2026.
At the same time, the data should not be interpreted as a count of Muslims entering the United States. The 45 countries are classified as majority-Muslim countries, but their populations are religiously diverse. Cato notes that 28 percent of refugees from those countries admitted between 2002 and 2024 were not Muslim, including Christians, Jews and people of other faiths.
The changes have also affected family-based immigration. Cato estimates that about half of the legal immigrants affected by the new restrictions are close relatives of U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents, including roughly 3,500 spouses and minor children of U.S. citizens being blocked each month under the policies it analyzed. Employment-based immigrant visas also declined, although by a smaller 41 percent between December 2024 and February 2026.
The administration has defended its immigration restrictions on grounds including national security and concerns over government benefits and eligibility.
Cato, however, reaches a different interpretation of the consequences. Its analysis argues that the restrictions have gone well beyond undocumented immigration and have substantially reduced lawful immigration as well.
The economic implications are part of that debate. Cato reports that immigrants from the affected majority-Muslim countries have relatively high employment and educational attainment compared with the U.S.-born population. Its analysis estimates that the restrictions have already kept approximately 103,000 workers from entering the United States and about 13,000 people from entering health-care and health-care-support occupations.
The report also emphasizes that the people affected are not exclusively refugees or people without employment prospects. Many are family members of Americans, workers, students and people seeking permanent legal residence through established immigration channels.
That distinction matters because the policy debate surrounding Trump's immigration agenda increasingly extends beyond illegal immigration at the southern border. The administration's actions have also altered the legal immigration system, affecting who can receive immigrant visas, who can enter as refugees and which nationalities face additional restrictions.
The Cato figures therefore offer a snapshot of a much broader transformation in America's legal immigration system.
From December 2024 to February 2026, legal immigration from the 45 majority-Muslim countries fell 96 percent, while legal immigration from other countries fell 36 percent. Those figures are not a judgment about whether the policy is desirable or undesirable; they document the scale of the change and provide a basis for the continuing debate over national security, immigration enforcement, family reunification and the future composition of legal immigration to the United States.
