The targeted killing of Iranian nuclear scientists during U.S.-Israeli military operations has triggered growing concern among experts: not just about what Iran lost—but about what could slip through the cracks if things fall apart. And yes, when it comes to nuclear material and expertise, “slipping through the cracks” is about as comforting as it sounds.
Over the past two years, several key figures tied to Iran’s nuclear and defense infrastructure have been eliminated, including Hossein Jabal Amelian, head of the SPND organization, which is believed to be central to Iran’s weaponization research. Others linked to nuclear weapons development were also killed in 2025, all part of a broader campaign targeting facilities and personnel connected to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Experts say Iran can replace people—but not experience. And in a field like nuclear weapons development, that’s kind of a big deal. Former CIA analyst Jim Lamson noted that while new scientists may step in, the knowledge and expertise lost will be far more difficult to rebuild. Some successors, understandably, may also think twice before stepping into roles that seem to come with a target on their back.
At the same time, the strikes have hit at least 11 sites tied to weaponization efforts, including research facilities involved in explosives testing, nuclear physics, and metallurgy. These hits have likely slowed Iran’s program in the short term, creating new obstacles and disrupting critical operations.
But here’s where things get complicated. Despite the damage, Iran still possesses significant enriched uranium. Estimates indicate the country holds over 200 kilograms enriched to 60%—enough for roughly five nuclear weapons if pushed further. President Donald Trump stated on April 17 that the U.S. would work with Iran to recover this material, even referring to it as “nuclear dust,” with plans to remove it using heavy machinery. Not exactly something you want lying around unattended.
Experts warn that the real risk emerges if instability inside Iran increases. While the current threat of nuclear materials reaching the black market remains low, that could change if government control weakens. There’s also concern that displaced or disillusioned scientists might sell their expertise to other nations—or even non-state actors—looking to develop nuclear capabilities. Because apparently, the world didn’t have enough problems already.
There are also lingering questions about undisclosed nuclear sites that may not have been hit during the strikes. If such locations exist, they could house materials or knowledge that remain outside international oversight, adding another layer of uncertainty.
Still, in the bigger picture, these operations have disrupted key elements of Iran’s nuclear development and sent a clear message about accountability and deterrence. While challenges remain, actions that slow proliferation and expose hidden risks are steps in the right direction—and in a world facing serious threats, that kind of vigilance is not just necessary, it’s essential. ??
